Flu Season Predicted to be Severe One

The early data emerging in the 2019-20 flu season suggests that this year could be a severe one. Australia has seen a surge in influenza cases in Australia and in recent there have been 3 reported deaths in the US, marking an early start to the season. “A death so early in the flu season suggests this year may be worse than usual,” says Dr Cameron Kaiser, Riverside County public health officer, discussing a death they suffered in September. Whereas predicting the severity of the flu season in any specific region is partly art, not just science, it is widely accepted that experiences in Australia tend to be replicated in the US and this, in turn, can be predictive of what we might experience in Cayman. In the US, Infections generally peak between December and February, according to the CDC. Given that it takes around two weeks for the vaccine to generate immunity to the influenza viruses, it is recommended that individuals get vaccinated as early as possible. Vaccines have just arrived in Cayman and Public Health are urging all persons of 6 months of age or older to get vaccinated and especially those persons deemed high-risk, including

• Young children from 6 months to 4 years of age
• Pregnant women
• People 50 years of age and older
• Persons of any age with a weakened immune system
• Those with chronic conditions such as heart, kidney, lung diseases and diabetes

Dr Francisco Martinez, Family Medicine Specialist at Integra Healthcare Ltd highlights the importance of vaccination, even for those not in the higher-risk categories; “Yes, people can protect themselves by getting vaccinated but getting vaccinated isn’t just important for ourselves, it helps protect the people around us, some of whom may be more vulnerable. Every year, including in Cayman, people experience severe illness caused by the influenza virus strains, with some ending up in hospital. We have to remember that flu still kills too.” To add some statistical context to Dr Martinez’s comments, the severe flu season experienced in the US in 2017-2018 saw an estimated 48.8 million people falling ill and more than 79,000 deaths, according to the CDC surveillance data. Last year was one of the longest seasons on record, at 21 weeks in duration.